Iraq is not going to have a Civil War

I know that Iraq is not going to have a Civil War. It is in the midst of a very uncivil conflict, but that is really nothing new. I have noted before that conflict in this region is nearly unceasing since Hammurabi and Shamshi-adad. But in the sense of an all encompassing civil war, even one like the Spanish Civil War that merely simmers along, just shy of boiling over, is not likely. And what is my proof for this? My own eyes.

As I drive through the little city nearing the base where I am stationed I see many things. The most numerous by far is trash, since waste disposal is a foreign concept to most of the cities here. Second to trash, is building materials. There are building materials everywhere. Whether bricks, mortar, or wood, you cannot drive ten feet, literally without encountering something being built or repaired.

Now admittedly this is a city which has planted its flag firmly with the Americans, and therefore has received a large portion of money from rebuilding efforts. But we are only a scant distance from places that are not friendly to Americans. This means that in a civil war, even a low order one, this city would get shelaqued. If they thought that were coming, they would not be building shops, they would be building bunkers. They are not, and neither is anyone else.

So there you have it. The Iraqis do not believe there will be a civil war. Let us hope that they are right.