Tragedy of the Commons in Iraq

I am back. Not that anyone really noticed my absence as I know that very few if anyone actually reads this. My lack of writing here is spurred in part by my lack of adequate Internet capabilities, and in part by pure shame that it had been so long. There is often a tendency that after making no or little progress, we abandon a project, no matter how noble. Over the next few weeks, I will go through and comment on things from my hand written journal for the public record.

Today, however, I would like to say that I think we are facing a tragedy of the commons in Iraq. There are groups of people who are far thinking, both in favor and opposed to coalition objectives. However, there is a large group of people who are neither far thinking, nor planning for the future. Many decades under tyranny have taught people that the best-laid plans always go awry. Therefore, all they do is look to the immediate solution.

This can work in our favor, somewhat, because we can offer them money, or other rewards for cooperation. But the draw back is that all they have to do is to the not so distant future. Most of these people have no established means of income. They are dependant completely on the machinations of war and the money that it drops haphazardly along the way. Therefore, it is in the best interest of these people, in the short term, that the war continues ad infinitum.

Whether it is the bomb maker or the informant, once either side finally triumphs their established means of income dries up. Both of them, the people who are actually fighting the war, have nothing to gain by seeing an end to it. Basically, while as much as both George Bush and Osama bin Laden wish to see a successful conclusion to the Iraq war, the immediate aftermath would be to devastating to the fighters of that war, for them to be committed enough to prosecute it to its final conclusion.

Of course, this does not apply to American Soldiers. We want to go home. This is probably why direct American Oversight is required. It is also not as applicable to the Iraqi Army or the Iraqi Police. After all they cannot go back now, and if they want a safe life, (which as they age will become more important), they must end this, soon. So, after all we have a way to win. But!, this may be why we are having such a hard time with the small things in reconstruction.